North Korea: Do they have a hydrogen bomb and what does it mean?
- By defencematters
Robert Edwin Kelly, Director of Research at SKL Security Services and Professor of Political Science at Pusan National University talks to us about North Korea’s claims on having and testing a hydrogen bomb
Andrej Matisak
Robert Edwin Kelly, Director of Research at SKL Security Services and Professor of Political Science at Pusan National University talks to us about North Korea's claims on having and testing a hydrogen bomb and what this might mean if there's even a shred of truth in it.
Is it really a hydrogen bomb?
At SKL, we are skeptical. North Korea makes all sorts of claims, and there is no reason, given their history of lying and dissembling, to take them at their word. We are waiting for definitive word from the South Korean and/or American governments, but the South Korean military is already saying they do not believe the blast was a hydrogen bomb. Perhaps the bomb today was given a some manner of fusion or hydrogen fuel boost to create the impression. But the seismic footprint of the blast already resembles that of the 2013 test, so we remain skeptical of the H-bomb claim. That said, it would be a major, and frightening, upgrade if Pyongyang managed to achieve this.
Why now?
We suggest two possible interpretations for the timing:
1) There is not much happening now in North Korean diplomacy, so now is as good a time as any to complete a test. Relations with both China and South Korea are currently frozen. China is upset but not abandoning NK, while the most recent talks with South Korea collapsed in December. So foreign relations are dead-in-the-water. Why not get the test out of the way when there is no real fallout.
2) South Korean parliamentary elections are coming up in April. Pyongyang has a history of trying to influence (i.e., bully) South Korean elections.
Perhaps this was that. But those are still three to four months away, so we are leaning toward interpretation 1.
How will this effect regional relations?
Only for the worse, if that is possible. Japan particularly has responded very sharply. SKL believes the future of this worsening tangle for the democracies is missile defense. It is increasingly obvious that North Korea has no intention of pulling over or reigning in the nuclear or missile programs. The only alternative - beyond hugely risky airstrikes or seemingly ineffective diplomacy - is a major air defense push. SKL has argued for this option in its previous monthly intelligence summaries regarding North Korea
Does this change the level of threat from North Korea?
SKL does not appraise the North Korean conventional military as the main North Korean threat much. The Korean People's Army is badly out of date, even if it is gigantic, and it is designed around fighting a mass war, like the eastern front in World War II, which the allies (the US and South Korea) will not fight. The greater issue is the nuclear program. Hydrogen bombs are an order of magnitude more powerful than atom bombs in the amount of energy they release. They are fusion weapons. So if Pyongyang has miniaturized them enough to put atop a missile, that would be a threat to region, and possibly the mainland US - if NK has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
But we do not yet believe North Korea has an ICBM. North Korea has a history of big talk. Before we believe that they have H-bombs or ICBMs, we encourage calm until independent verification.
